Investment update - April 2026
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Published on 27 May 2026In April, the regional conflict in the Middle East escalated into a systemic supply-side shock driven by the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices and container freight rates rose sharply, reviving stagflation concerns and reinforcing a shift toward a more volatile post-COVID inflation environment. Despite these geopolitical headwinds, global equity markets rebounded strongly, with emerging markets increasing 9.3% in April and 30.6% over the past year.
The US inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, the highest reading since May 2024, while the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with growing divergence among policymakers highlighting increased uncertainty in the outlook. In Australia, inflation rose to 4.6% in April and prompting the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35%. The Australian dollar strengthened 5.0% against the US dollar and the S&P/ASX 300 rose 2.2%.
In Europe, inflation climbed to 3.0% while the ECB kept rates unchanged. Japan’s Nikkei surged 16.1%, and China’s economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by resilient export performance.